Quantitative sports intelligence

QuantSport

Institutional-Grade Sports Probability Baselines

We compute objective mathematical probabilities for global sports markets. Monitor market divergences, isolate pricing inefficiencies, and evaluate expected value through our B2B data feeds.

The public website is a transparent audit layer. It shows processed events, settlement history, and model metrics while keeping the internal research stack private.

Building your own models? Get early access to our B2B API & Data Feeds.

Data Freshness

06/03, 04:38 PM

Processed Events

133

Published Anomalies

24

Coverage

3 sports / 8 leagues

Public coverage remains intentionally selective. New sports and leagues are added only after data quality, calibration, and live validation pass internal review.

133
Processed Events
7.37%
Historical Yield on Turnover
1.95
Mean Implied Price
0.7614
Log Loss
0.2731
Brier Score
21.51 pp
Mean Probability Divergence
Metrics are calculated across 133 processed model events. Yield and equity metrics use 204 positions with confirmed archived market prices.

How the quantitative pipeline works

From raw data ingestion to settlement and delivery. The site exposes the architecture of the process without disclosing internal formulas, thresholds, or proprietary weighting schemes.

01

Data collection

Historical matches, box-score context, lineups, schedule state, and market reference prices are synchronized into the research store.

02

Feature engineering

Form, home-away splits, fatigue, schedule density, opponent strength, and interaction features are recalculated on the latest archive.

03

Probability modeling

CatBoost models estimate event probabilities across supported markets and surface only calibrated confidence layers.

04

Market comparison

Internal probabilities are compared against market-implied prices to isolate probability anomalies and divergence zones.

05

Data delivery

Raw probability matrices and isolated EV zones are delivered via low-latency API and WebSocket-oriented distribution layers.

06

Settlement

After the event ends, settlement state, market implied price, and position delta are written into the archive.

Pipeline components

CatBoost / Gradient BoostingHistorical event archivexG and contextual football metricsSchedule density and fatigue factorsMarket-implied probability curvesLine movement and execution contextTeam-strength and lineup statePost-settlement audit archive

Exact feature formulas, model weights, and internal gating thresholds remain private. The public layer is designed to explain process integrity, not to disclose the research edge itself.

Public Performance Layer

Performance metrics use only settled positions with confirmed archived market prices.

Metrics are calculated across 133 processed events. Yield and equity curves strictly utilize confirmed historical closing lines for 204 priced positions.

Detailed model metrics
Equity curve on confirmed positions

The line shows cumulative position delta only for rows with a real archived market price.

Confirmed Positions

204

Historical Yield on Turnover

7.37%

Max Drawdown

-8.56u

Mean Implied Price

1.95

05/10/2026

Live Market Anomalies

No active public anomalies. New valid market divergences will appear here automatically.

Recent Settled Positions

Transparent log of the latest processed positions. If an archived market price is missing, the site leaves the field empty rather than fabricating a value.

View settlement archive
DateSportLeagueMatchMarketTarget OutcomeImplied PriceModel Prob.SettlementPosition Delta
05/10FootballLigue 1
FC Metz vs FC NantesScore: 1:0
Goals
Over 2.5
2.18
MEDIUM
-1.00u
05/10FootballLa Liga
Club Atlético de Madrid vs FC BarcelonaScore: 3:0
Goals
1X2
Under 2.5
Away win (FC Barcelona)
2.90
2.25
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
-1.00u
-1.00u
04/22BasketballNBA
Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston RocketsScore: 101:94
Spread
Spread
Ф1 +5.0 (Los Angeles Lakers)
1H Ф1 +2.7 (Los Angeles Lakers)
1.91
1.91
MEDIUM
HIGH
+0.91u
+0.91u
04/22BasketballNBA
San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail BlazersScore: 103:106
Spread
Spread
Ф1 -11.5 (San Antonio Spurs)
1H Ф1 -6.1 (San Antonio Spurs)
1.90
1.90
HIGH
HIGH
-1.00u
-1.00u
04/22BasketballNBA
Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ersScore: 97:111
Spread
Spread
Ф1 -14.0 (Boston Celtics)
1H Ф1 -7.4 (Boston Celtics)
1.89
1.89
HIGH
HIGH
-1.00u
-1.00u
04/22FootballLa Liga
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Elche CFScore: 0:0
Goals
Over 2.5
1.88
MEDIUM
-1.00u
04/22FootballLa Liga
Girona vs Real BetisScore: 2:3
Goals
Over 2.5
1.93
MEDIUM
+0.93u
04/21BasketballNBA
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota TimberwolvesScore: 114:119
Spread
Spread
Ф1 -7.5 (Denver Nuggets)
1H Ф1 -4.0 (Denver Nuggets)
1.89
1.89
HIGH
HIGH
-1.00u
-1.00u

League coverage

The platform currently covers football, NHL, basketball and tennis. New leagues are added only after model and data validation.

Football

Bundesliga

Germany

Active

La Liga

Spain

Active

Ligue 1

France

Active

Premier League

England

Active

Serie A

Italy

Active

UEFA Champions League

Europe

Active
🏒NHL

NHL

USA / Canada

Active
🏀Basketball

NBA

USA

Active

Supported leagues are shown independently from whether they already have settled rows in the public archive.

B2B API & Enterprise Data Feeds

We are opening our raw probability matrices and automated edge detection for institutional testing. Enter your email to join the developer waitlist.

Quantitative Risk & Variance

Algorithmic market exposure carries inherent variance. QuantSport provides objective probability baselines, not financial advice.

Probability baselines are not certainty

The system estimates distributions and divergence zones. A single settled position can still fail even when the model is directionally correct over a large sample.

Variance is structural

Drawdowns and losing streaks are mathematically unavoidable in probabilistic market work, even when the long-run edge is positive.

Capital risk infrastructure is required

Our data feeds are designed for institutions equipped with their own capital allocation, execution, and exposure management models.

Historical transparency is not a promise

Out-of-sample curves, settlement logs, and public metrics exist for auditability, not as a guarantee of forward performance.

Core principle: historical out-of-sample performance does not guarantee future market inefficiencies. Institutions using these data feeds still require their own capital allocation, execution, and variance controls.

B2B Infrastructure

Explore our API documentation, review the public methodology, and integrate objective probability matrices into your automated pipelines.

Probability baselines for automation
Settlement archive for backtesting
Structured anomaly feed access

The public interface is intentionally limited. Raw matrices, low-latency delivery, and historical data exports are reserved for enterprise evaluation.