Equity Curve
Equity simulation with a fixed position size of 3% of current capital for each settled position. Starting capital: 1000u.
The simulation includes 204 of 204 settled markets. Only positions without confirmed archived market prices are excluded, otherwise the equity math would be fictional.
Latest equity recalculation: 05/10/2026. The chart and table below are grouped by settlement date, so the balance curve matches the actual calculation order.
Starting Capital
1000u
Current Equity
1438.44u
Net Position Delta
+438.44u
Cumulative Out-of-Sample Yield
+43.84%
Max Drawdown
-421.51u
23.63%
Positive Settlement Share
55.9%
Included Positions
204
Mean Implied Price
1.95
Using fixed position sizing, this curve shows end-of-day capital allocation by settlement date.
Net daily result across all included positions, grouped by settlement date.
Start: 1000u.
Each position size: 3% of current capital allocation at the time the event was processed.
Win: size × (price - 1). Loss: -size. Push: 0.
One match can create several positions if the model published separate outcomes for 1X2, goals, and corners.
Excluded markets: 0. The reason is always the same: confirmed archived market prices were missing.
This shows how many markets settled each day and how many entered the equity curve. Low coverage usually means confirmed archived prices were missing.
05/10/2026
Coverage
100.0%
Settled markets
3
Included
3
Excluded
0
04/22/2026
Coverage
100.0%
Settled markets
8
Included
8
Excluded
0
04/21/2026
Coverage
100.0%
Settled markets
6
Included
6
Excluded
0
04/20/2026
Coverage
100.0%
Settled markets
2
Included
2
Excluded
0
04/19/2026
Coverage
100.0%
Settled markets
13
Included
13
Excluded
0
04/18/2026
Coverage
100.0%
Settled markets
8
Included
8
Excluded
0
04/17/2026
Coverage
100.0%
Settled markets
1
Included
1
Excluded
0
04/16/2026
Coverage
100.0%
Settled markets
2
Included
2
Excluded
0
04/15/2026
Coverage
100.0%
Settled markets
6
Included
6
Excluded
0
04/13/2026
Coverage
100.0%
Settled markets
29
Included
29
Excluded
0
04/12/2026
Coverage
100.0%
Settled markets
5
Included
5
Excluded
0
04/11/2026
Coverage
100.0%
Settled markets
30
Included
30
Excluded
0
04/10/2026
Coverage
100.0%
Settled markets
12
Included
12
Excluded
0
04/08/2026
Coverage
100.0%
Settled markets
21
Included
21
Excluded
0
| Settlement date | Settled markets | Included | Excluded | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2026 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 04/22/2026 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 04/21/2026 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 04/20/2026 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 04/19/2026 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 04/18/2026 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 04/17/2026 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 04/16/2026 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 04/15/2026 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 04/13/2026 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 04/12/2026 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 04/11/2026 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 04/10/2026 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 04/08/2026 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 100.0% |
Full ledger of positions included in the equity curve. The main date is the settlement date; the original match date is shown below the row when it differs.
05/10/2026 • match 04/05/2026
FC Metz vs FC Nantes
Football
Market
Goals
Target Outcome
Over 2.5
Implied Price
2.18
Position Size
44.49u
Settlement
LOSS
Equity
1438.44u
Position Delta
-44.49u
05/10/2026 • match 04/04/2026
Club Atlético de Madrid vs FC Barcelona
Football
Market
Goals
Target Outcome
Under 2.5
Implied Price
2.90
Position Size
45.86u
Settlement
LOSS
Equity
1482.93u
Position Delta
-45.86u
05/10/2026 • match 04/04/2026
Club Atlético de Madrid vs FC Barcelona
Football
Market
1X2
Target Outcome
Away win (FC Barcelona)
Implied Price
2.25
Position Size
47.28u
Settlement
LOSS
Equity
1528.79u
Position Delta
-47.28u
04/22/2026
Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
Ф1 +5.0 (Los Angeles Lakers)
Implied Price
1.91
Position Size
46.03u
Settlement
WIN
Equity
1576.07u
Position Delta
+41.66u
04/22/2026
Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
1H Ф1 +2.7 (Los Angeles Lakers)
Implied Price
1.91
Position Size
44.82u
Settlement
WIN
Equity
1534.41u
Position Delta
+40.56u
04/22/2026
San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
Ф1 -11.5 (San Antonio Spurs)
Implied Price
1.90
Position Size
46.20u
Settlement
LOSS
Equity
1493.85u
Position Delta
-46.20u
04/22/2026
San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
1H Ф1 -6.1 (San Antonio Spurs)
Implied Price
1.90
Position Size
47.63u
Settlement
LOSS
Equity
1540.05u
Position Delta
-47.63u
04/22/2026
Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
Ф1 -14.0 (Boston Celtics)
Implied Price
1.89
Position Size
49.10u
Settlement
LOSS
Equity
1587.68u
Position Delta
-49.10u
04/22/2026
Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
1H Ф1 -7.4 (Boston Celtics)
Implied Price
1.89
Position Size
50.62u
Settlement
LOSS
Equity
1636.78u
Position Delta
-50.62u
04/22/2026 • match 04/03/2026
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Elche CF
Football
Market
Goals
Target Outcome
Over 2.5
Implied Price
1.88
Position Size
52.19u
Settlement
LOSS
Equity
1687.40u
Position Delta
-52.19u
04/22/2026 • match 04/21/2026
Girona vs Real Betis
Football
Market
Goals
Target Outcome
Over 2.5
Implied Price
1.93
Position Size
50.77u
Settlement
WIN
Equity
1739.59u
Position Delta
+47.22u
04/21/2026
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
Ф1 -7.5 (Denver Nuggets)
Implied Price
1.89
Position Size
52.34u
Settlement
LOSS
Equity
1692.37u
Position Delta
-52.34u
04/21/2026
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
1H Ф1 -4.0 (Denver Nuggets)
Implied Price
1.89
Position Size
53.96u
Settlement
LOSS
Equity
1744.71u
Position Delta
-53.96u
04/21/2026
New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
Ф1 -6.5 (New York Knicks)
Implied Price
1.90
Position Size
55.63u
Settlement
LOSS
Equity
1798.67u
Position Delta
-55.63u
04/21/2026
New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
1H Ф1 -3.4 (New York Knicks)
Implied Price
1.90
Position Size
54.17u
Settlement
WIN
Equity
1854.30u
Position Delta
+48.75u
04/21/2026
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
Ф1 -9.5 (Cleveland Cavaliers)
Implied Price
1.88
Position Size
52.77u
Settlement
WIN
Equity
1805.55u
Position Delta
+46.51u
04/21/2026
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
1H Ф1 -5.0 (Cleveland Cavaliers)
Implied Price
1.88
Position Size
51.41u
Settlement
WIN
Equity
1759.04u
Position Delta
+45.31u
04/20/2026
San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
Ф1 -10.5 (San Antonio Spurs)
Implied Price
1.87
Position Size
50.10u
Settlement
WIN
Equity
1713.73u
Position Delta
+43.66u
04/20/2026
San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
1H Ф1 -5.6 (San Antonio Spurs)
Implied Price
1.87
Position Size
48.83u
Settlement
WIN
Equity
1670.07u
Position Delta
+42.55u
04/19/2026
Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers
Basketball
Market
Spread
Target Outcome
Ф1 -12.5 (Boston Celtics)
Implied Price
1.92
Position Size
47.52u
Settlement
WIN
Equity
1627.52u
Position Delta
+43.60u
| Settlement date | Sport | Match | Market | Target Outcome | Implied Price | Position Size | Settlement | Position Delta | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05/10/2026 match 04/05/2026 | Football | FC Metz vs FC Nantes | Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.18 | 44.49u | LOSS | -44.49u | 1438.44u |
05/10/2026 match 04/04/2026 | Football | Club Atlético de Madrid vs FC Barcelona | Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.90 | 45.86u | LOSS | -45.86u | 1482.93u |
05/10/2026 match 04/04/2026 | Football | Club Atlético de Madrid vs FC Barcelona | 1X2 | Away win (FC Barcelona) | 2.25 | 47.28u | LOSS | -47.28u | 1528.79u |
04/22/2026 | Basketball | Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets | Spread | Ф1 +5.0 (Los Angeles Lakers) | 1.91 | 46.03u | WIN | +41.66u | 1576.07u |
04/22/2026 | Basketball | Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets | Spread | 1H Ф1 +2.7 (Los Angeles Lakers) | 1.91 | 44.82u | WIN | +40.56u | 1534.41u |
04/22/2026 | Basketball | San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers | Spread | Ф1 -11.5 (San Antonio Spurs) | 1.90 | 46.20u | LOSS | -46.20u | 1493.85u |
04/22/2026 | Basketball | San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers | Spread | 1H Ф1 -6.1 (San Antonio Spurs) | 1.90 | 47.63u | LOSS | -47.63u | 1540.05u |
04/22/2026 | Basketball | Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers | Spread | Ф1 -14.0 (Boston Celtics) | 1.89 | 49.10u | LOSS | -49.10u | 1587.68u |
04/22/2026 | Basketball | Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers | Spread | 1H Ф1 -7.4 (Boston Celtics) | 1.89 | 50.62u | LOSS | -50.62u | 1636.78u |
04/22/2026 match 04/03/2026 | Football | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Elche CF | Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.88 | 52.19u | LOSS | -52.19u | 1687.40u |
04/22/2026 match 04/21/2026 | Football | Girona vs Real Betis | Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.93 | 50.77u | WIN | +47.22u | 1739.59u |
04/21/2026 | Basketball | Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves | Spread | Ф1 -7.5 (Denver Nuggets) | 1.89 | 52.34u | LOSS | -52.34u | 1692.37u |
04/21/2026 | Basketball | Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves | Spread | 1H Ф1 -4.0 (Denver Nuggets) | 1.89 | 53.96u | LOSS | -53.96u | 1744.71u |
04/21/2026 | Basketball | New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Ф1 -6.5 (New York Knicks) | 1.90 | 55.63u | LOSS | -55.63u | 1798.67u |
04/21/2026 | Basketball | New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks | Spread | 1H Ф1 -3.4 (New York Knicks) | 1.90 | 54.17u | WIN | +48.75u | 1854.30u |
04/21/2026 | Basketball | Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors | Spread | Ф1 -9.5 (Cleveland Cavaliers) | 1.88 | 52.77u | WIN | +46.51u | 1805.55u |
04/21/2026 | Basketball | Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors | Spread | 1H Ф1 -5.0 (Cleveland Cavaliers) | 1.88 | 51.41u | WIN | +45.31u | 1759.04u |
04/20/2026 | Basketball | San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers | Spread | Ф1 -10.5 (San Antonio Spurs) | 1.87 | 50.10u | WIN | +43.66u | 1713.73u |
04/20/2026 | Basketball | San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers | Spread | 1H Ф1 -5.6 (San Antonio Spurs) | 1.87 | 48.83u | WIN | +42.55u | 1670.07u |
04/19/2026 | Basketball | Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers | Spread | Ф1 -12.5 (Boston Celtics) | 1.92 | 47.52u | WIN | +43.60u | 1627.52u |
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